From 2005

IS MOST PUBLISHED SCIENCE FALSE?

Science is chasing truth, with an emphasis on the chase. Nevertheless, regardless of this pursuit, a common assumption is that when a scientific study is published, its results are true — and only on the rarest occasions, do false findings appear in print. But a new analysis of the probability that published research findings are true suggests that we all may be deceiving ourselves – most research papers are instead false. “We have to acknowledge that there is a problem,” says John Ioannidis, from the University of Ioannina in Greece, who recently undertook the analysis. Using a mathematical model that…